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Wednesday, September 27, 2017

WEDNESDAY NFL WEEK 3 PICK REVIEW + GUESSING THE LINES FOR WEEK 4

WEEK 3 🏈 12-4
🗝 1-0
🐶 2-0
5️⃣ 4-1
🚩 3-0

W e e k _ 3 ~💣 💫 🅿️ i c k s _ R e v i e w

💫 LAR @ SF (+3) | 41-39 ⬆︎40.5: amazing TNF game; kind of a backdoor cover but I'll take it

💫 BAL "@" JAX (+4) | 7-44 ⬆︎12: perhaps the most surprising outcome of the week; first London game of 2017

💫 MIA @ NYJ (+6) | 6-20 ⬇︎17: the first of several dogs, home or otherwise, winning outright

💣 NO @ CAR (-5.5) | ⬇︎0.5: shocked the Panthers couldn't do anything on O; serious downgrade moving forward

💫 TB @ MIN (+1) | 17-34 ⬆︎10: tbh didn't formally announce my pick here but I'll take it retroactively :)

💫 NYG (+6) @ PHI | 24-27 ⬆︎8.5: some improvement for my Giants but they remain a scary play going forward

💫 HOU (+14) | 33-36 ⬆︎24.5: this game cost me nearly 1K; my ML parlay of Bears, Jets and Texans was oh-so close

💫 DEN @ BUF (+3) | 15-26 ⬆︎2: perhaps the one home dog pick that gave me the most pause (other than LAC); good performance by Bills here

💫 PIT @ CHI (+7.5) | 17-23 ⬇︎4: Steelers need to work out some serious issues going forward; Bears should be plucky at home this year

💣 ATL @ DET (+3) | 30-26 ⬆︎5: of my four losses on the day, this one hits the hardest given the finish (Golden Tate just shy of GL for outright win)

💫 CLE @ IND (+1.5) | 28-31 ⬆︎18: final score prob not indicative of how game really went; Colts seemed to dominate

💣 SEA (+2.5) @ TEN | 27-33 ⬆︎17.5: Titans win in a very chippy, impressive game; beating Seattle at own (mind) game

💫 CIN (+9.5) @ GB | 24-27 ⬆︎4.5: line krept to around 7 by kickoff and rightfully so as O-coordinator change for Cincy paid off

💣 KC @ LAC (+3.5) | 24-10 ⬇︎14: KC really shaping up as a must-bet at this point; even with Berry injury, defense continues to shine

💫 OAK @ WSH (+3.5) | 10-27 ⬇︎18: my Lock o' the Week™ never really in doubt; would not downgrade Oakland after this performance however

💣 DAL (-3.5) @ AZ | 28-17 ⬇︎2: bounce back game for Dallas on MNF although Cards played better than I expected

GENERAL NOTES:

• Week 3 Underdogs ATS: 12-4 (Year: 27-19-1) • Underdogs (3+) winning outright (6 🐩^*road): JAX, NYJ, NO*, CHI, BUF, WSH,(13 on year)

• Week 2 Home Teams ATS: 9-7 (Year: 25-21-1)

• AFC leads NFC 6-3 ATS on the year in head-to-head's

• Unders went 6-10; now 25-21-1 on year

• 9 of 16 teams covered by double digits

• Of note, personally: in the 4 losses I took above, my "guess the line" numbers was pretty close to the final spread; wouldn't put too much emphasis on this either way just yet, but worth noting

GUESSING WEEK 4 LINES:
Listen here.

THE YEAR 🏈 27-19-1
🗝 2-1
🐶 2-2
5️⃣ 9-6
🚩 5-4

HISTORICAL
2015: 141-110-5
2016: 120-129-7
ALL-TIME: 261-239-12