• ๐’ฒ๐‘’๐“๐’ธ๐‘œ๐“‚๐‘’ ๐“‰๐‘œ ๐“‚๐“Ž ๐“Œ๐‘’๐’ท๐“ˆ๐’พ๐“‰๐‘’! ๐’ฒ๐‘œ๐“Œ ๐“๐‘œ๐‘œ๐“€ ๐’ถ๐“‰ ๐“‰๐’ฝ๐’พ๐“ˆ ๐“‰๐‘’๐“๐“‰ ๐’ถ๐“๐“ ๐“‰๐’ฝ๐‘’ ๐“Œ๐’ถ๐“Ž ๐‘œ๐“ƒ ๐“‰๐’ฝ๐‘’ ๐“‰๐‘œ๐“… ๐‘œ๐’ป ๐“‰๐’ฝ๐‘’ ๐“…๐’ถ๐‘”๐‘’, ๐“Œ๐’ฝ๐’ถ๐“‰'๐“ˆ ๐’พ๐“‰ ๐’น๐‘œ๐’พ๐“ƒ๐‘” ๐’ฝ๐‘’๐“‡๐‘’? ๐ผ ๐’ท๐‘’๐“‰ ๐“‰๐’ฝ๐’ถ๐“‰'๐“ˆ ๐“Œ๐’ฝ๐’ถ๐“‰ ๐“Ž๐‘œ๐“Š'๐“‡๐‘’ ๐“Œ๐‘œ๐“ƒ๐’น๐‘’๐“‡๐’พ๐“ƒ๐‘”. ๐ผ๐’ป ๐“Ž๐‘œ๐“Š'๐“‡๐‘’ ๐“ƒ๐‘œ๐“‰ ๐“Œ๐‘œ๐“ƒ๐’น๐‘’๐“‡๐’พ๐“ƒ๐‘” ๐“‰๐’ฝ๐’ถ๐“‰ ๐“‰๐’ฝ๐‘’๐“ƒ ๐“‚๐’ถ๐“Ž๐’ท๐‘’ ๐“Ž๐‘œ๐“Š'๐“‡๐‘’ ๐“Œ๐‘œ๐“ƒ๐’น๐‘’๐“‡๐’พ๐“ƒ๐‘” ๐“Œ๐’ฝ๐’ถ๐“‰ ๐“Ž๐‘œ๐“Š ๐’ถ๐“‡๐‘’ ๐‘”๐‘œ๐’พ๐“ƒ๐‘” ๐“‰๐‘œ ๐’ฝ๐’ถ๐“‹๐‘’ ๐’ป๐‘œ๐“‡ ๐“๐“Š๐“ƒ๐’ธ๐’ฝ; ๐ผ ๐‘œ๐’ป๐“‰๐‘’๐“ƒ ๐“Œ๐‘œ๐“ƒ๐’น๐‘’๐“‡ ๐’ถ๐’ท๐‘œ๐“Š๐“‰ ๐“‰๐’ฝ๐’ถ๐“‰. ๐’œ๐“ƒ๐“Ž๐’ฝ๐‘œ๐“Œ, ๐’พ๐’ป ๐“Ž๐‘œ๐“Š'๐“‡๐‘’ ๐“ˆ๐“‰๐’พ๐“๐“ ๐“‡๐‘’๐’ถ๐’น๐’พ๐“ƒ๐‘” ๐“‰๐’ฝ๐’พ๐“ˆ ๐“‰๐‘’๐“๐“‰ ๐“ˆ๐’ธ๐“‡๐‘œ๐“๐“, ๐“๐‘’๐“‰ ๐“‚๐‘’ ๐’ฟ๐“Š๐“ˆ๐“‰ ๐“ˆ๐’ถ๐“Ž ๐“‰๐’ฝ๐’ถ๐“‰ ๐’พ๐“‰'๐“ˆ ๐’ถ ๐“…๐“๐‘’๐’ถ๐“ˆ๐“Š๐“‡๐‘’ ๐“‰๐‘œ ๐’ฝ๐’ถ๐“‹๐‘’ ๐“Ž๐‘œ๐“Š ๐’ธ๐‘œ๐“‚๐‘’ ๐’ถ๐“ƒ๐’น ๐“‹๐’พ๐“ˆ๐’พ๐“‰ ๐“‚๐“Ž ๐“Œ๐‘’๐’ท๐“…๐’ถ๐‘”๐‘’ ๐’ถ๐“ƒ๐’น ๐ผ ๐“‡๐‘’๐’ถ๐“๐“๐“Ž ๐’ฝ๐‘œ๐“…๐‘’ ๐“Ž๐‘œ๐“Š ๐’ป๐‘œ๐“๐“๐‘œ๐“Œ ๐’ถ๐“๐‘œ๐“ƒ๐‘” ๐’ถ๐“ƒ๐’น ๐“‚๐’ถ๐“Ž๐’ท๐‘’ ๐‘’๐“‹๐‘’๐“ƒ ๐’ท๐‘œ๐‘œ๐“€๐“‚๐’ถ๐“‡๐“€ ๐’พ๐“‰ ๐“ˆ๐‘œ ๐“Ž๐‘œ๐“Š ๐’ธ๐’ถ๐“ƒ ๐“‹๐’พ๐“ˆ๐’พ๐“‰ ๐’พ๐“‰ ๐“Œ๐’พ๐“‰๐’ฝ ๐‘’๐’ถ๐“ˆ๐‘’ ๐’พ๐“ƒ๐“ˆ๐’พ๐’น๐‘’ ๐“Ž๐‘œ๐“Š๐“‡ ๐“Œ๐‘’๐’ท ๐’ท๐“‡๐‘œ๐“Œ๐“ˆ๐‘’๐“‡ ๐‘œ๐’ป ๐’ธ๐’ฝ๐‘œ๐’พ๐’ธ๐‘’. ๐ผ ๐’ถ๐“‚ ๐’ถ๐“๐“ˆ๐‘œ ๐’ป๐’ถ๐’พ๐“‡๐“๐“Ž ๐’ถ๐’ธ๐“‰๐’พ๐“‹๐‘’ ๐‘œ๐“ƒ ๐’ถ ๐’ฝ๐‘œ๐“ˆ๐“‰ ๐‘œ๐’ป ๐“ˆ๐‘œ๐’ธ๐’พ๐’ถ๐“ ๐“‚๐‘’๐’น๐’พ๐’ถ ๐“…๐“๐’ถ๐“‰๐’ป๐‘œ๐“‡๐“‚๐“ˆ ๐“ˆ๐‘œ ๐“Ž๐‘œ๐“Š ๐’ธ๐’ถ๐“ƒ ๐’ป๐’พ๐“ƒ๐’น ๐“‚๐‘’ ๐‘œ๐“ƒ ๐“‰๐’ฝ๐‘œ๐“ˆ๐‘’, ๐’ถ๐“ƒ๐’น ๐“๐’พ๐“€๐‘’, ๐’ป๐‘œ๐“๐“๐‘œ๐“Œ, ๐“ˆ๐“Š๐’ท๐“ˆ๐’ธ๐“‡๐’พ๐’ท๐‘’ ๐’ถ๐“ƒ๐’น ๐‘”๐‘’๐“ƒ๐‘’๐“‡๐’ถ๐“๐“๐“Ž ๐’ฟ๐“Š๐“ˆ๐“‰ ๐’ฝ๐’ถ๐“‹๐‘’ ๐’ถ ๐“๐‘œ๐“‰ ๐‘œ๐’ป ๐’ป๐“Š๐“ƒ ๐“‡๐‘’๐’ถ๐’น๐’พ๐“ƒ๐‘” ๐’ถ๐“ƒ๐’น, ๐’พ๐’ป ๐’พ๐“‰ ๐“ˆ๐“‰๐“‡๐’พ๐“€๐‘’๐“ˆ ๐“Ž๐‘œ๐“Š๐“‡ ๐’ป๐’ถ๐“ƒ๐’ธ๐“Ž, *๐“ˆ๐’ฝ๐’ถ๐“‡๐’พ๐“ƒ๐‘”* (๐“Œ๐’พ๐“ƒ๐“€-๐“Œ๐’พ๐“ƒ๐“€) ๐“‚๐“Ž ๐“…๐‘œ๐“ˆ๐“‰๐“ˆ. ๐’ช๐’ฝ, ๐’ถ๐“๐“ˆ๐‘œ, ๐ผ ๐’ป๐‘œ๐“‡๐‘”๐‘œ๐“‰ ๐“‰๐‘œ ๐“‚๐‘’๐“ƒ๐“‰๐’พ๐‘œ๐“ƒ ๐“‰๐’ฝ๐’ถ๐“‰ ๐“‚๐“Ž ๐“ƒ๐’ถ๐“‚๐‘’'๐“ˆ ๐’ฅ๐‘’๐’ป๐’ป ๐’ถ๐“ƒ๐’น ๐ผ ๐“๐’พ๐“‹๐‘’ ๐’พ๐“ƒ ๐’ซ๐’ฝ๐’พ๐“๐’ถ๐’น๐‘’๐“๐“…๐’ฝ๐’พ๐’ถ ๐“ƒ๐‘œ๐“Œ. ๐‘€๐’ถ๐“Ž๐’ท๐‘’ ๐ผ'๐“๐“ ๐“๐’พ๐“‹๐‘’ ๐’พ๐“ƒ ๐’ถ ๐’น๐’พ๐’ป๐’ป๐‘’๐“‡๐‘’๐“ƒ๐“‰ ๐“…๐’ถ๐“‡๐“‰ ๐‘œ๐’ป ๐“‰๐’ฝ๐‘’ ๐“Œ๐‘œ๐“‡๐“๐’น ๐’พ๐“ƒ ๐“‰๐’ฝ๐‘’ ๐’ป๐“Š๐“‰๐“Š๐“‡๐‘’, ๐’ท๐“Š๐“‰ ๐“‰๐’ฝ๐’ถ๐“‰'๐“ˆ ๐“Œ๐’ฝ๐‘’๐“‡๐‘’ ๐ผ ๐“๐’พ๐“‹๐‘’ ๐’ป๐‘œ๐“‡ ๐“ƒ๐‘œ๐“Œ. ๐’ช๐’ฆ, ๐ผ ๐’ป๐‘’๐‘’๐“ ๐“๐’พ๐“€๐‘’ ๐ผ'๐“‹๐‘’ ๐“‰๐’ถ๐“€๐‘’๐“ƒ ๐“Š๐“… ๐‘’๐“ƒ๐‘œ๐“Š๐‘”๐’ฝ ๐‘œ๐’ป ๐“Ž๐‘œ๐“Š ๐“‰๐’พ๐“‚๐‘’ ๐’ฝ๐‘’๐“‡๐‘’ ๐‘œ๐“ƒ ๐“‰๐’ฝ๐‘’ ๐“‚๐’ถ๐“‡๐“†๐“Š๐‘’๐‘’๐‘’... ๐’ฎ๐‘œ ๐‘”๐‘’๐“‰ ๐“‰๐‘œ ๐’ธ๐“๐’พ๐’ธ๐“€๐’พ๐“ƒ' ๐’ถ๐“ƒ๐’น ๐“ˆ๐’ธ๐“‡๐‘œ๐“๐“๐’พ๐“ƒ'! ๐’ž๐“๐’พ๐’ธ๐“€๐’พ๐“ƒ'... ๐’ฎ๐’ธ๐“‡๐‘œ๐“๐“๐’พ๐“ƒ'...๐’ถ๐’ฝ, ๐’ฟ๐“Š๐“ˆ๐“‰ ๐“‰๐’ฝ๐‘’ ๐’ท๐‘’๐“ˆ๐“‰ ๐“ˆ๐“‰๐“Š๐’ป๐’ป ๐‘œ๐“ƒ ๐“‰๐’ฝ๐‘’ ๐‘’๐’ถ๐“‡๐“‰๐’ฝ ๐’พ๐“‚๐‘œ. ๐’œ ๐‘”๐‘œ๐‘œ๐’น ๐“…๐“๐’ถ๐’ธ๐‘’ ๐“‰๐‘œ ๐“ˆ๐“‰๐’ถ๐“‡๐“‰ ๐“‚๐’พ๐‘”๐’ฝ๐“‰ ๐’ท๐‘’ ๐“‰๐’ฝ๐‘’ ๐’น๐“‡๐‘œ๐“…-๐’น๐‘œ๐“Œ๐“ƒ ๐“‚๐‘’๐“ƒ๐“Š ๐’น๐’พ๐“‡๐‘’๐’ธ๐“‰๐“๐“Ž ๐’ท๐‘’๐“๐‘œ๐“Œ, ๐“Œ๐’ฝ๐’พ๐’ธ๐’ฝ ๐’พ๐“ˆ ๐“‰๐’ฝ๐‘’ ๐“‚๐‘œ๐“ˆ๐“‰ ๐’ธ๐‘œ๐“‚๐“…๐“‡๐‘’๐’ฝ๐‘’๐“ƒ๐“ˆ๐’พ๐“‹๐‘’ ๐“๐’พ๐“ˆ๐“‰ ๐‘œ๐’ป ๐’ถ๐“๐“ ๐“‰๐’ฝ๐‘’ ๐’น๐“Š๐“‚๐’ท ๐“…๐“‡๐‘œ๐’ฟ๐‘’๐’ธ๐“‰๐“ˆ ๐ผ'๐“‹๐‘’ ๐“‚๐’ถ๐’น๐‘’ ๐’พ๐“ƒ ๐“‰๐’ฝ๐‘’ ๐’ถ๐“‡๐“‰๐“ˆ. ๐ป๐’ถ๐“‹๐‘’ ๐’ถ ๐‘”๐‘œ๐‘œ๐’น ๐’น๐’ถ๐“Ž. ๐’ข๐‘œ๐’ท ๐’ท๐“๐‘’๐“ˆ๐“ˆ. ๐Ÿ’จ๐Ÿคข
   K E Y:  ✄= art ✎= lit ♪= music ✪= video;  = highly recommended content

Wednesday, September 27, 2017

WEDNESDAY NFL WEEK 3 PICK REVIEW + GUESSING THE LINES FOR WEEK 4

WEEK 3 ๐Ÿˆ 12-4
๐Ÿ— 1-0
๐Ÿถ 2-0
5️⃣ 4-1
๐Ÿšฉ 3-0


W e e k _ 3 ~๐Ÿ’ฃ ๐Ÿ’ซ ๐Ÿ…ฟ️ i c k s _ R e v i e w
๐Ÿ’ซ LAR @ SF (+3) | 41-39 ⬆︎40.5: amazing TNF game; kind of a backdoor cover but I'll take it

๐Ÿ’ซ BAL "@" JAX (+4) | 7-44 ⬆︎12: perhaps the most surprising outcome of the week; first London game of 2017

๐Ÿ’ซ MIA @ NYJ (+6) | 6-20 ⬇︎17: the first of several dogs, home or otherwise, winning outright

๐Ÿ’ฃ NO @ CAR (-5.5) | ⬇︎0.5: shocked the Panthers couldn't do anything on O; serious downgrade moving forward

๐Ÿ’ซ TB @ MIN (+1) | 17-34 ⬆︎10: tbh didn't formally announce my pick here but I'll take it retroactively :)

๐Ÿ’ซ NYG (+6) @ PHI | 24-27 ⬆︎8.5: some improvement for my Giants but they remain a scary play going forward

๐Ÿ’ซ HOU (+14) | 33-36 ⬆︎24.5: this game cost me nearly 1K; my ML parlay of Bears, Jets and Texans was oh-so close

๐Ÿ’ซ DEN @ BUF (+3) | 15-26 ⬆︎2: perhaps the one home dog pick that gave me the most pause (other than LAC); good performance by Bills here

๐Ÿ’ซ PIT @ CHI (+7.5) | 17-23 ⬇︎4: Steelers need to work out some serious issues going forward; Bears should be plucky at home this year

๐Ÿ’ฃ ATL @ DET (+3) | 30-26 ⬆︎5: of my four losses on the day, this one hits the hardest given the finish (Golden Tate just shy of GL for outright win)

๐Ÿ’ซ CLE @ IND (+1.5) | 28-31 ⬆︎18: final score prob not indicative of how game really went; Colts seemed to dominate

๐Ÿ’ฃ SEA (+2.5) @ TEN | 27-33 ⬆︎17.5: Titans win in a very chippy, impressive game; beating Seattle at own (mind) game

๐Ÿ’ซ CIN (+9.5) @ GB | 24-27 ⬆︎4.5: line krept to around 7 by kickoff and rightfully so as O-coordinator change for Cincy paid off

๐Ÿ’ฃ KC @ LAC (+3.5) | 24-10 ⬇︎14: KC really shaping up as a must-bet at this point; even with Berry injury, defense continues to shine

๐Ÿ’ซ OAK @ WSH (+3.5) | 10-27 ⬇︎18: my Lock o' the Week™ never really in doubt; would not downgrade Oakland after this performance however

๐Ÿ’ฃ DAL (-3.5) @ AZ | 28-17 ⬇︎2: bounce back game for Dallas on MNF although Cards played better than I expected

GENERAL NOTES:

• Week 3 Underdogs ATS: 12-4 (Year: 27-19-1) • Underdogs (3+) winning outright (6 ๐Ÿฉ*road): JAX, NYJ, NO*, CHI, BUF, WSH,(13 on year)

• Week 2 Home Teams ATS: 9-7 (Year: 25-21-1)

• AFC leads NFC 6-3 ATS on the year in head-to-head's

• Unders went 6-10; now 25-21-1 on year

• 9 of 16 teams covered by double digits

• Of note, personally: in the 4 losses I took above, my "guess the line" numbers was pretty close to the final spread; wouldn't put too much emphasis on this either way just yet, but worth noting

GUESSING WEEK 4 LINES:
Listen here.

TEAM BY TEAM (TO DATE):
๐Ÿ’™ NYG: 1-2 ATS | 0-1 HOME ATS -17 AVG | 1-1 ROAD -6.75 AVG | 0-2-1 OVERALL
๐Ÿ‘ข DAL: 2-1 ATS | 1-0 HOME +10 AVG | 1-1 ROAD -17.5 AVG | 2-1-0 OVERALL
๐Ÿฆ… PHI: 1-2 ATS | 1-1 ROAD +6.5 AVG | 0-1 HOME -3.5 AVG | 1-1-1 OVERALL
❓ WSH: 2-1 ATS | 1-1 HOME +4.25 AVG | 1-0 ROAD +10 AVG 2-1-0 OVERALL ๐Ÿฉ x 2

๐ŸŽบ MIN: 1-1 ATS | 2-0 HOME +12.5 AVG | 0-1 ROAD -11 AVG | 2-1-0 OVERALL
๐Ÿง€ GB: 1-2 ATS | 1-1 HOME -0.5 AVG | 0-1 ROAD -8 AVG| 1-1-1 OVERALL
๐Ÿป CHI: 2-1 ATS | 2-0 HOME +7 AVG | 0-1 ROAD -15.5 AVG | 0-1-2 OVERALL ๐Ÿฉ x 1
๐Ÿฆ DET: 2-1 ATS | 1-1 HOME ATS +7.75 AVG | 1-0 ROAD +17 AVG | 2-0-1 OVERALL ๐Ÿฉ x 1

⚔️ TB: 1-1 ATS | 1-0 HOME +15.5 AVG | 0-1 ROAD -18 AVG | 1-1-0 OVERALL
๐Ÿ•Š ATL: 2-1 ATS | 1-0 HOME +8 AVG | 1-1 ROAD +0.75 AVG | 1-0-2 OVERALL
๐Ÿฑ CAR: 1-2 ATS | 0-2 HOME -13.5 AVG | 1-0 ROAD +15 AVG | 1-1-1 OVERALL
⚜️ NO: 1-2 ATS | 0-1 HOME -9.5 AVG | 1-1 ROAD +9.75 AVG | 1-2-0 OVERALL ๐Ÿฉ x 1

๐Ÿ’ฐ SF: 2-1 ATS | 1-1 HOME -7 AVG | 1-0 ROAD +11 AVG0-1-2 OVERALL
๐Ÿ›‘ AZ: 0-3 ATS | 0-1 HOME -7.5 AVG | 0-2 ROAD -9.25 AVG | 0-2-1 OVERALL
๐Ÿฆ SEA: 0-3 ATS | 0-1 HOME -11 AVG | 0-2 ROAD -5 AVG | 0-1-2 OVERALL
๐Ÿ‘ LAR: 1-2 ATS | 1-1 HOME +10.75 AVG | 0-1 ROAD -1 | 1-1-1 OVERALL

๐Ÿคก NE: 1-2 ATS | 0-2 HOME -17 AVG | 1-0 ROAD +9.5 AVG | 1-1-1 OVERALL
๐Ÿฌ MIA 1-1 ATS | 1-1 ROAD -7.5 | 0-1-1
๐Ÿ…ฑ️ BUF: 3-0 ATS | 2-0 HOME +7.25 AVG | 1-0 ROAD +1 AVG | 1-0-2 OVERALL ๐Ÿฉ x 1
✈️ NYJ: 1-2 ATS | 1-0 HOME +20.5 | 0-2 ROAD -6.5 AVG | 1-2-0 OVERALL ๐Ÿฉ x 1

⚫️ PIT: 1-2 ATS | 1-0 HOME +11 AVG | 0-2 ROAD -10.25 AVG | 1-0-2 OVERALL
๐Ÿ• CLE: 1-2 ATS | 1-0 HOME +7 AVG | 0-2 ROAD -5.25 AVG | 0-2-1 OVERALL
๐Ÿง BAL: 2-0 ATS | 1-0 HOME +6 AVG | 1-1 ROAD -9.25 AVG | 2-1-0 OVERALL ๐Ÿฉ x 1
๐Ÿฏ CIN: 0-1 ATS | 0-2 HOME -16.5 AVG | 0-2-0 OVERALL

๐Ÿค  HOU: 1-1 ATS | 0-1 HOME -28 AVG | 1-0 ROAD -10.5 AVG | 1-1-0 OVERALL ๐Ÿฉ x 1
๐Ÿ† JAX: 2-1 ATS | 1-1 HOME +10.75 AVG | 1-0 ROAD +28 AVG | 2-1-0 OVERALL ๐Ÿฉ x 2
๐Ÿ‹️ TEN: 2-1 ATS | 1-1 HOME -4 AVG | 1-0 ROAD +19.5 AVG | 1-0-2 OVERALL
๐Ÿด IND: 2-1 ATS | 2-0 HOME +4.25 AVG | 0-1 ROAD -33.5 AVG | 1-1-1 OVERALL

⚡️ LAC: 0-2-1 ATS | 0-2 HOME -8.5 AVG | 0-0-1 ROAD 0 AVG| 0-1-2 OVERALL
๐Ÿ‡ DEN: 1-1-1 ATS | 1-0-1 HOME +13.75 AVG | 0-1 ROAD -13 AVG | 1-0-1 OVERALL
☠️ OAK: 2-1 ATS | 1-0 HOME +11.5 | 1-1 ROAD -4 AVG | 1-1-1 OVERALL ๐Ÿฉ x 1
๐Ÿ”บ KC: 3-0 ATS | 1-0 HOME +1 AVG | 2-0 ROAD +17.25 AVG | 3-0-0 OVERALL ๐Ÿฉ x 1

THE YEAR ๐Ÿˆ 27-19-1
๐Ÿ— 2-1
๐Ÿถ 2-2
5️⃣ 9-6
๐Ÿšฉ 5-4

HISTORICAL
2015: 141-110-5
2016: 120-129-7
ALL-TIME: 261-239-12